Monthly Metal Review

Overview (May 2018)

Markets have been pulled and pushed by consider-able headwinds, tailwinds and cross currents in May, that have seen government bond yields and oil price both rise and fall, while the dollar has moved from strength to strength. In addition, the markets have had to put up with further mixed messages from President Donald Trump on trade and sanctions, and benign economic data. The 10-year US treasuries yield climbed to 3.128 percent at one stage, which took it above the dividend yield on the S&P 500, the dollar index has been as high as 95.03 and oil prices rose above $80 per barrel. These were enough to cap the upside on most commodity prices, although where supply has been disrupted, as in the case of oil and lead, higher prices have been seen. The stronger dollar, higher oil prices and strong yields have not helped market confidence, but judging by the retreat in gold prices, nei-ther did they cause too much concern. World stocks fell at mid-month on soft Chinese economic data and slow progress, later rectified, in U.S.-China trade talks, whilst a rise in U.S. borrowing costs supported the dollar. Germany’s first-quarter economic growth came in lower than expected. China reported weaker-than-expected April investment and retail sales and a home-sales drop. The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose above the key 3-percent level in mid-May, sending borrowing costs higher in some other countries and supporting the dollar. The situation deteriorated further towards the end of May, with uncertainty in Europe once again rising as Italy has failed to form a government. This could lead to fresh elections and at worse another EU crisis. Other situations that have escalated include uncertainty on whether the US/North Korea summit will go ahead as US President Donald Trump called off the talks, although latest reports suggest they may be on again. The oil rally was driven by concerned about oil supply following US sanctions against Iran and as Venezuela’s oil production and exports have slumped. OPEC and Russia have as-sured the market they can increase output and as a result Brent crude oil prices have fallen back to $75.50 per barrel. The uncertainty over Italy has led to another bout of risk-off that has so far mainly hit equities and periph-eral European debt, with money moving into the safe-havens of US and German bonds, the dollar and the yen, but gold has largely been left off the safe-haven list, which may be because investors have become more yield conscious again. The risk-off in broader markets has not yet flowed into the base metals – most have been trading sideways in May, the exceptions being lead and nickel where prices have risen. President Donald Trump actions against trade im-balances at first sight do seem to have poured cold water on the markets bullish outlook, but perhaps he is taking this opportunity now as this is the first time in ten years that the global economy has been robust enough to with-stand some trade adjustments. If these can be carried out without triggering trade wars that could be good for long-er growth and trade.

Daily Prices

June 2018

Copper
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 7110.04
18-06-2018 6987
15-06-2018 7136
14-06-2018 7197
13-06-2018 7201.5
12-06-2018 7200.5
11-06-2018 7223.5
08-06-2018 7262.5
07-06-2018 7245.5
06-06-2018 7147
05-06-2018 6971
04-06-2018 6935
01-06-2018 6814
Silver
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 16.73
18-06-2018 16.605
15-06-2018 17.225
14-06-2018 17.125
13-06-2018 16.905
12-06-2018 16.855
11-06-2018 16.76
08-06-2018 16.72
07-06-2018 16.745
06-06-2018 16.545
05-06-2018 16.385
04-06-2018 16.44
01-06-2018 16.42
PM MEAN AM Gold
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1296.18
18-06-2018 1281.25
15-06-2018 1300.1
14-06-2018 1305.3
13-06-2018 1294.4
12-06-2018 1298.3
11-06-2018 1296.05
08-06-2018 1299.2
07-06-2018 1298.3
06-06-2018 1295.25
05-06-2018 1292.25
04-06-2018 1294.65
01-06-2018 1299.15
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1295.66
18-06-2018 1281.4
15-06-2018 1292.675
14-06-2018 1304.025
13-06-2018 1295.275
12-06-2018 1298.475
11-06-2018 1297.825
08-06-2018 1298.725
07-06-2018 1297.775
06-06-2018 1297.675
05-06-2018 1292.15
04-06-2018 1295.05
01-06-2018 1296.875
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1295.14
18-06-2018 1281.55
15-06-2018 1285.25
14-06-2018 1302.75
13-06-2018 1296.15
12-06-2018 1298.65
11-06-2018 1299.6
08-06-2018 1298.25
07-06-2018 1297.25
06-06-2018 1300.1
05-06-2018 1292.05
04-06-2018 1295.45
01-06-2018 1294.6
Lead
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2466.92
18-06-2018 2411.5
15-06-2018 2431
14-06-2018 2464
13-06-2018 2461
12-06-2018 2458
11-06-2018 2480
08-06-2018 2480
07-06-2018 2545
06-06-2018 2510.5
05-06-2018 2504
04-06-2018 2428
01-06-2018 2430
Zinc
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 3182.83
18-06-2018 3108
15-06-2018 3189
14-06-2018 3220
13-06-2018 3228
12-06-2018 3229
11-06-2018 3221
08-06-2018 3221
07-06-2018 3215
06-06-2018 3205
05-06-2018 3175
04-06-2018 3094
01-06-2018 3089
Tin
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 20964.58
18-06-2018 20910
15-06-2018 20900
14-06-2018 21025
13-06-2018 20920
12-06-2018 21300
11-06-2018 21250
08-06-2018 21250
07-06-2018 21200
06-06-2018 20825
05-06-2018 20725
04-06-2018 20595
01-06-2018 20675
Nickel
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 15317.50
18-06-2018 14970
15-06-2018 15265
14-06-2018 15245
13-06-2018 15180
12-06-2018 15295
11-06-2018 15310
08-06-2018 15310
07-06-2018 15750
06-06-2018 15640
05-06-2018 15415
04-06-2018 15280
01-06-2018 15150
Cobalt
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 83729.17
18-06-2018 80500
15-06-2018 81000
14-06-2018 81500
13-06-2018 81500
12-06-2018 81250
11-06-2018 82500
08-06-2018 82500
07-06-2018 84000
06-06-2018 85000
05-06-2018 87000
04-06-2018 88000
01-06-2018 90000