The Dubai debt brought a shock to the system at the end of this month rattling investor’s already skittish confidence. Making the global risk assets look more precarious, including a heightened sense of foreboding amidst the backdrop of the financial crisis, as investors continue to seek safe havens. As investors scurry and scramble to find the safest possible haven they have spurred the demand for physical gold. That coupled with both Sri Lanka’s and India’s more considerable bullion purchases sent the gold price skyrocketing to new towering heights this month. Nevertheless gold did ease back a bit at the end of the month that helped the dollar bounce off its 14-year low against the yen and its 15-month low against the euro in the currency market basket. Could the LME be getting more cleaver as members are now using LMEsmart to match and register trades. This will replace the services operated by the LCH.Clearnet, the clearing house. The aim is to provide further flexibility in matching and even swifter product launches. The ore demand nudges freight cost higher as the request for dry bulk commodities seem to suggest that the possibility of strong economic growth may lie ahead. Yet lossmaking shipyards desperately seek to entice investor interest. Some even hoping to receive highly specialized orders that are not intended to be set out on the waters. As one of Croatia’s main shipbuilding companies looks to be commissioned for a rotating hotel that would allow guest to enjoy different views from their rooms. Well if high seas are not attracting investors perhaps the ground will prove more fruitful as mining may offer a glimmer of hope for landlocked Zimbabwe. While after three years of silence the Freda Rebecca mine begins to stir with activity again. For Mwana Africa it has not been easy to lure investors to a project that lies in one of Africa’s most politically tormented countries. With much enthusiasm they are steadfast determined to overcome obstacles and prove doubters wrong, which if successful could provide a gleaming example for Africa. The volatility of the markets has given much food for thought at a time when the prices seem to be defying the fundamentals. Analysts have even compared our current times within the crisis as the hangover after the party. And the market’s volatility seems to reflect the staggering of a sever hangover while investors seek support in something solid. Hence why physical assets have been proving so attractive and metals have been following gold’s lead to new elevations. However the U.S. Dollars resent bounce off records lows against a basket of other major currencies perhaps will prove the dollar is no longer a one-way bet.
In London, the Lead cash settlement price rose to US$ 2,290 per tonne while the Zinc cash settlement price rose to US$ 2,226.50 per tonne on the 30th of November, 2009. Doe Run Peru most likely will revive its operations at La Oroya smelter at the end of January or at latest within the first few months of 2010. This is good news with union leaders saying that talks to pay off debts and plans to secure contracts with suppliers are already underway. Previously the company had affirmed that if they were granted an extension, they would be able to complete their environmental clean-up, resume production, and commence the remuneration of dept. The Peruvian government approved endorsed a 30 month extension to Doe Run for the La Oroya operation. Anglo and Exxaro may be considering presenting their zinc assets as a package deal for a more appetizing sales opportunity. However both are looking into all options to maximize returns, considering the market, and plotting out a strategic agenda. China has shown some interest in Anglo’s unwanted assets, not only as an attempt to control overseas assets but also reflecting domestic competition in the zinc sector for dominance. Century has been forced to halt shipments as they have run out of zinc stock since its concentrator was suspended in October due to a leak in the slurry pipeline. A bypass to circumvent the problem leak should be completed and in place at the end of November. However shipments could be delayed several weeks as the pipeline bypass will undergo extensive testing prior to resuming the slurry flow and restarting the concentrator. Teck Recourses has temporarily shut-down its Trail lead furnace for repairs following equipment failure at the beginning of the month. They will continue to refine lead from inventory which should reduce the impact of the shut-down, nevertheless some shipments may be affected the company advised customers. However the zinc production at Trail will continue unaffected by the disruption. Peru’s Antamina and its unions have signed a new three years labor contract this month.
In London, the Copper settlement price continued to rise to US$ 6,814.50 a tonne with a contango of US$ 175.00 on the 30 th of November, 2009. Copper has been joyfully riding gold hitting a new high of $6,945.50 per metric tonne for the year on Monday the 23 rd of November. However analysts wary of the dizzying heights are warning that the market is pricing at unrealistically high expectations in relation to global economic activity. Nevertheless just like there is an increased demand for physical gold there is also an unusual demand for copper that has copper pots brewing. For those unable to purchase gold bullion the warm glow of a copper pot seems to have drawn their attention. In China traders assure that there has been a massive increase in the demand for copper pots and kettles, as one trader pit it, “They can’t buy copper derivatives, but they can buy those.” Asarco, the Arizona-based copper miner, that filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection back in 2005 and after 4 years of litigation is finally seeing the end of the tunnel. After a U.S. bankruptcy judge had favored the Grupo Mexico bid was confirmed by a federal judge in Texas this month.. Chile was in the news a fair amount this month as Codelco aims to sell 80 pct of its copper through contracts in 2010 reducing spot sales and plans to up its output 40 pct by 2018. However some trouble has begun to stir as Codelco Norte Chuquicamata mine workers ask for a 7.5 pc raise in wages, threats of a strike at the massive Chuquicamata mine could fuel supply fears and push the price of copper even higher. BHP on the other hand has finally come to an agreement after several failed talks with its workers at the Spence mine in Chile, agreeing over a 4 percent wage increase and bonuses.
In London, the tin settlement price continued to waivered closing at US$ 14,800 per tonne with a backwardation of US$ 25.00 on the 30 th of November, 2009. At the beginning of this moth nearly all of Indonesia’s independent tin miners had all gone back to work after fears of arrest had dissipated. The two-month crackdown sent shock waves through the illegal mining on Bangka encouraging those in the practice to leave the island. Crackdowns happen on a regular basis on tin rich Bangka and Belitung and this most recent one caused independent miners and private smelters to come to a standstill for fears of being implicated. Only state controlled smelters, as Koba Tin and PT Timah seem to have gone on with operations unaffected. Indeed PT Timah, the second largest smelter in the world, is considering to increase its 2010 out put but only if prices remain above $16,000 per tonne. In fact the cash price of tin on the LME has risen to more than $15,000 after hovering around $11,000 at the beginning of the year. Though there are fears that the global demand has not entirely recovered and that supply should be controlled to allow prices to improve. However due to the recent heavy rains, the private Indonesian tin consortium Banka Belitung Timah Sejahera (BBTS) have had to bring production to a stand still. As many mines have been flooded and turbulent seas disrupting off shore mining has had an impact on supply. BBTS tin ore stocks have dwindled to zero. Again the larger smelters, as Koba Tin and PT Timah have gone on uninterrupted. According to the World Bureau of Metal statistics Indonesia produced 84,356 tonnes of tin in 2008. Ranking second as the world’s largest tin producers following China. Peru and Thailand have come to a Free Trade Aagreement cutting duties on products including tin metal.
In London, the Gold PM fixing was traded at US$ 1176.75 per ounce and while Silver rose to closed at US$ 18.14 per ounce, on the 30 th of November, 2009. Gold continues its dance with the dollar and keeps climbing up the charts breaking record after record. Its sister metal silver is happily going along for the ride. At the start of the month India sent the gold price soaring to an all-time high with the purchase of 200 tonnes of gold, or eight percent of the worlds annual mine production, for $6.7bn. New Delhi’s Reserve Bank purchase from the International Monetary Fund pushed the price to a record $1,086.10 per troy ounce. However the Indian central bank purchase record would be broken several times this month. Gold finally hit an average of $1182.75 on Thursday the 26 th, before slipping back down to $1166.50 the following day. This far-fetched increase in demand for physical gold has let the precious metal market march to the beat of a different drum. As risk aversion has returned and physical gold has no counterparty risk which makes it the safest haven of all. The increased gold rush has even forced the US government to cut the American Gold Eagle sales after running out of inventories for the world’s most popular bullion coin. These unprecedented bids for bullion have also helped other precious metals and even base metal markets. Nevertheless many remain wary in the face of rises and warn of the volatility threats over actual demand. Yet the gold rally has added much luster to the precious metal prices as silver, platinum, and palladium have been on the trail of bullions upward path. Joining the party is Canadian Agnico Eagle as it inaugurated and stated work at its Mexican Pinos Altos gold and silver project. Pinos Altos is now considered one of Mexico’s most important modern mining projects, with likely 3.6 million ounces in gold reserves.
In London, Nickel rose to US$ 16,030 per tonne, with a contango of $ 50, on the 30 th of November, 2009. On the same day Cobalt min. 99.8% traded at US$ 21.55 per pound and Cobalt min. 99.3% at US$ 19.73 per pound. Vale was once again a big name in the news this month as views start to focus on its Goro project in New Caledonia due to start in January 2010. Whether or not the project is successful could have a large impact on sentiments surrounding the high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) process. As the name implies it is a high-pressure, high-temperature, high-cost acid, process that is used to leach the material. Though this is not a new technology it has not advanced without its difficulties and has never yet been utilized to such a scale forecasting a 60,000 tpy of nickel. Nevertheless it is not the only project of its kind in the pipeline Sherritt’s Ambatovy project in Madagascar is scheduled to start in the third quarter of 2010. They will also be using the HPAL process and equally plan for an output of 60,000 tpy of nickel. However if these projects are a success and manage to produce the quantity of nickel they project there are fears that it may have a negative effect on the nickel price. Traders and analyst watching the nickel price react to market fundamentals again; feel that if the projects are delayed the price will rise if they are a success the price will fall. First Quantum gets ready for arbitration in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over the Kolwezi copper and cobalt project. Thought the company still seeks a solution via negotiations with the government but if this fails they will have no choice but to file the proceedings. The Kolowezi project was suspended back in September subsequent to the Katanga general prosecutor’s orders to seal the facility and the revocation of the exploration permit. First Quantum considers there is no legal basis for the cancellation of the sealing of the project and intends to defend its position. |